Dollar Wise Decisions

Tuesday, September 26, 2006

DWDI vs SPDR - 9/26 Recap

SPDRs up 0.83% to 1016.05
DWDI up 0.41% to 1015.78 1/2

Major Markets & DWDI ended today as follows

Market% ChangeValue
Dow+0.81% 11,669.31
S&P 500+0.75% 1,336.34
NASDAQ+0.55% 2,261.34
---
DWDI+0.41%1,015.78
SPY+0.83%1,016.05


What makes me feel best here is when I look at my personal portfolio and see that it was up 0.93% for the day which beats everything up there. hehehe

For the DWDI only two stocks went down. Medtronics by 0.19 and Wrigley by .07
I would like to do more analysis on the S&P and see which stocks drove it up the most. I've been surprised that the correlation between the S&P and the Spider ETF doesn't track more closely day to day. They certainly chart well together and I suppose I've just never looked this closely before.

I did learn a little more about MorningStars 5 star rating system and that 5 star stocks with below average risk (as we have in the DWD Index) are expected to gain an annualized return of 15.5% over the next three years. 5 star stocks with high risk are expected to return 30.5% over the same annualized time frame.

In my personal portfolio, ConocoPhillips and ExxonMobil let the pack with gains of 1.99% and 2.11% respectively. In the Lisa Portfolio, recently acquired Worthington Industries (WOR) was up 2.77% and good old Canadian Oil Sands Trust (COSWF) was up 2.89%

Compass Minerals International (CMP) rose a pleasant 1.47% today. That company is up 19.8% for the year and is one I choose for my IRA after completing my funding for 2006 in April of this year. It's one of those boring, non-sexy stocks that Warren Buffet would seem to love and after deciding on it I've been able to capture over a 10.6% return in less than 5 months. A nice perk to CMP is that they pay a 4.2% dividend.

That high dividend makes me think of a company called Tuesday Morning (TUES) which is a closeout retailer of upscale home furnishings. They opened 732 stores in 46 states as of 12/31/05. It's an interesting store because they're only open during periodic sales events lasting from four to five weeks and are usually closed during January and July, which tend to be weak months for retailers.
TUES is currently at $14.29/share and Morningstar has a FairValue of $28 which is right around it's 52 week high. A nice bonus w/ TUES is they pay a 5.70% dividend. The company is 97.3% institutionally owned. Pat Dorsey, CFA & Director of Equity Research at Morningstar also believes that if MorningStar is wrong about their valuation and the company's price stays where it is that TUES could be taken private again at a nice premium to todays stock price.

Vonage (VG) is another company worth a second look. VG just had its IPO on May 23rd of this year. So, on May 24th we find that five different insiders bought some of the Vonage stock for $17/share - three people bought 100 shares each and two others bought 2,500 and 5,000 shares. VG started tumbling and has fallen to $6.95/share right now but what's very interesting is that from August 4th through Aug 21 the insiders have come out in force and didn't just buy a hundred or a few thousand shares, this time they acquired over 500,000 shares of VG with prices ranging from $6.45 to $6.82

At the end of 2004 VG had 390,000 subscribers, by EOY 2005 that number grew to 1,269,000 and ending in June of 2006 that number is up to 1,853,253.
VG is a small-cap growth company, brand spankin new to the stock market and has 3 yr revenue growth of 552.1%
I don't have any small growth companies in my current portfolio and this would also diversify me w/ some telcom but probably a bigger reason I'll keep this company under consideration is the fact that every person I've ever talked with that has Vonage has been very pleased with their service.

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